Probabilities and Booker

Well I said yesterday that I was going to start early on the Booker longlist to reduce my reading after the shortlist is announced. I don’t want to give myself unnecessary reading either, what to do?

After great thought, as a Betting man I thought well, I’ll go for a 1 in 2 chance, so off I go to crunch the sums (the spelling corrector wanted to put sims, since when was crunching sims more likely than crunching sums?). And here reader is the answer

  • If I want to reduce my reading by 1 book, I need only read 1 book
  • If I want to reduce my reading by 2 books, I need to read 3 books (approx)
  • If I want to reduce my reading by 3 books, I need to read 5

So, no point reading 6 books, I’ll stop at 5!

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